Phenological and productive response of white maize to climate change in andean conditions

Mirian Irene Capa-Morocho, Fernanda Zapata, Rodrigo Abad-Guamán, Diego Chamba-Zaragozín

Abstract


Background. Climate change has direct impacts on current and future crop productivity, negatively affecting food security, particularly in Latin America. Objective. To assess the impact of projected climate change on the phenology and yield of white maize using the DSSAT CERES-Maize model, which was calibrated and validated under Andean conditions. Methodology. The crop model was validated using data from field trials carried out in 2018-2019 and 2020-2021 under different planting densities and nutrient management regimes. Climate projections from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and emissions scenarios from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) were used. Results. Calibration and validation of the CERES maize crop model demonstrated good agreement between simulated and observed values for white maize phenology and yield under Andean conditions. The error rate percentage was less than 10%, which indicates high accuracy of the simulation results. The phenology of white maize was significantly affected under all SSP climate scenarios, particularly in the 2090s, indicating a decrease of up to 83 days (approximately 39%) in the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. Regarding maize productivity, a reduction in yield is expected under SSP370 and SSP585 (up to a maximum of 20%), with declines being more significant at the end of the century. Conversely, projections for the SSP126 scenario indicate a slight increase in yields. Implications. These results suggest that climate change will have a negative impact on the white maize crop under Andean conditions. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation measures will be necessary to reduce the risk of meeting population demand in the mid-to-late century under the most severe emissions scenario. Conclusion. The findings estimate that white maize will considerably shorten the growing season under future climate change, with potential impacts on crop yield.

Keywords


CERES-MAIZE; crop model; climate scenarios; white maize; climate change

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References


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URN: http://www.revista.ccba.uady.mx/urn:ISSN:1870-0462-tsaes.v28i3.65012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.56369/tsaes.6501

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