Ismael Quiroz Guerrero, Arturo Pérez Vázquez, Cesáreo Landeros Sánchez, Felipe Gallardo López, Joel Velasco Velasco, Griselda Benítez Badillo


Background. Climate change puts pressure on the agroecosystems, and the cultivation of Coffea arabica may not be resilient under these conditions. Objective. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of climate change on coffee agroecosystem resilience. Methodology. Maxent software was applied to model current and future scenarios. The current scenario was developed using 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from the Worldclim database with climate records for the period 1960-1990. As for the future scenario, the impact of climate change was modeled based on climate projections for the year 2050 using 3 different global climate models: CCCMA, HADCM3, and CSIRO. The variables in this study were analyzed using Statistica and Gephi software. Results. The results showed under the climate change scenario that 15% of the plots were distributed in unsuitable / non-resilient areas and 85% in moderately suitable and suitable/resilient areas for the establishment of C. arabica. Also, the adaptation indicators showed a higher frequency (30) of negative values in coffee agroecosystem (C-AES) plots in areas of both high impact and low impact. Implications. The data could allow the redesign of the coffee agroecosystems to improve the weak elements of its structure. Even the structure reinforcement could be direct with farmers or by public politics, government institutions, organizations, and coffee businessmen. Conclusion. It was concluded that after 2050, the conditions for coffee cultivation will be reduced and as a consequence, the proportion of plots at lower altitudes will remain outside the optimal environmental conditions. On the other hand, there will be plots within the area with suitable conditions for cultivating C. arabica, therefore these will be resilient to climate change, but these will need to establish precise adaptation strategies for the disturbances that will take place in the immediate future. 


adaptation;regime; socioecological; sustainability; impact

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