POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF Cordia dodecandra A.DC. AND ITS VARIATION RELATED TO THE CHANGE OF LAND USE ON THE YUCATÁN PENINSULA, MEXICO

Abstract

Background. The study of the geographical distribution of species is very useful for understanding the patterns and processes that explain biodiversity and are raw materials for conservation planning based on the generation of maps identifying areas with a high probability of occurrence. Objective. To determine the potential distribution (PD) of C. dodecandra and land use variations in the Yucatan Peninsula (YP). Methodology. A Species Distribution Model (MDE) was used to find areas with suitable environmental conditions for wild populations of Cordia dodecandra, fifteen environmental variables were used to model the optimal conditions for the species and to create the model for PD using the MaxEnt 3.3.3k program, the georeferenced presence records available from herbaria and the data collected in the field were used to map the Known Distribution (DC) of C. dodecandra. The corrected PD (DPC) was calculated by incorporating the land use data obtained from INEGI into the model. Results. The PD of C. dodecandra in the YP was 2,501,938 hectares. The main environmental variables that affect the PD of the species were the type of climate, the precipitation of the wettest month, the precipitation of the wettest quarter and the annual precipitation. CPD decreased by 2 per cent (265,439 hectares) compared to PD. Implications. The analysis identifies areas with a high probability of finding the species, which would help to initiate projects for the development of this species aimed at its conservation. Conclusion. The areas of potential distribution with the greatest probability of presence of Siricote in the Yucatan Peninsula are: the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, the southern and central part of the state of Yucatan and the central area of the municipality of Felipe Carrillo Puerto (Quintana Roo).