ESTIMATE OF THE DEMAND OF IMPORTATIONS OF PERSIAN LIME (CITRUS LATIFOLIA TANAKA) IN THE UNITED STATES PROVINENT FROM MEXICO (1994-2008)

Abstract

In 2008 Mexico ranked as the second  worldwide producer (14.94%) of lemons and the first of exportation (20.5%), principally of persian lime; so that the objective of the research was to identify and assess those factors that determine the demand of importations of persian limes in the United States, principal market destiny (94.7%). Under the assumption that this market offers a real capacity for expansion of Mexican producers of this crop, was formulated a multiple regression model, considering the income, exchange rate (peso / dollar), unit import price and the demand of  importations, estimated by the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), with annual data from 1994-2008, also obtaining the elasticities of demand. The highest response was variable income with an elasticity of 3.8, classifying the Persian lime as a normal top, followed by the exchange rate (0.83) and price (-0666). It was concluded that it is feasible to maintain the current growth rate of demand for imports from Persian lime, of 9.3% annual average, because the required increase in real U.S. income would be 2.45% (ceteris paribus), for 2.9% growth observed in the study period.